By Thomas Birkbeck
Nine Drivers Can Still Win the 2026 Title. Seven of Them Know They Won’t.
Liam Lawson is 233 points behind Kimi Antonelli. There are 233 points left to win. So on paper, a Kiwi who spent the last month borrowing somebody else’s Red Bull is still a world championship contender.
That’s the maths. The reality is a lot less generous. With nine rounds left, made up of nine Grands Prix and one Sprint, 233 points are still available, and nine drivers are mathematically alive heading to Baku. But being alive and being in the fight are two very different things. So here’s where each of them actually stands before this weekend’s race, which runs on Saturday instead of Sunday to avoid a national day of mourning.
Kimi Antonelli, 292 points
Start with the kid who’s been running away with it. He won five of the first six races, took the lead at Suzuka in round three, and has since won at Spa, Monza and Madrid. The Monza win came from 19th on the grid, and he’s the youngest driver ever to lead the standings. Eight wins from 14 starts.
But he’s not bulletproof. Look at his results sheet and two numbers jump out. He finished 16th in Barcelona and 15th at Silverstone. Those are the only two weekends all year where he looked his age. And even with those, he’s still 81 points clear. That tells you how good the other 12 weekends were.
George Russell, 211 points
Russell has the worst job in Formula 1 right now. He’s driving the best car on the grid and still losing, because the only person who can beat him is in the other garage.
He’s won twice. He took the season opener in Melbourne and won again in Austria. The damage came from two retirements. He failed to finish in Canada and at Spa, and Antonelli won both of those races. That’s 50 points gone in two afternoons.
To close 81 points over nine races, Russell needs to outscore Antonelli by about nine points every single weekend. That’s the gap between a win and a third place. Every weekend. Against a teammate who’s won the last two. And he finished fifth in Madrid while Antonelli won. It’s not over, but it’s close.
Lewis Hamilton, 191 points
Hamilton’s season has been one of the better stories of the year. His win in Barcelona was his first for Ferrari and his first in F1 in 686 days, going back to the 2024 Belgian Grand Prix.
What people miss is how consistent he’s been. He finished inside the top six in each of the first 13 races, before a retirement in Madrid. That’s brilliant for a points table. It’s useless for chasing down a guy who keeps winning. You don’t make up 101 points with fourths and fifths. And one win in 14 races says Ferrari still don’t have the car to do it.
Lando Norris, 186 points
If you want the in-form driver, it’s Norris. He won back to back in Hungary and Zandvoort, then followed up with fourth at Monza and third in Madrid.
But here’s the thing. Add up those last four races and Norris took 77 points. Antonelli took 83 over the same stretch. So Norris at his absolute best hasn’t even held the gap steady, let alone cut it.
His title was lost early. He didn’t start in China, then retired in both Canada and Monaco. Three blank weekends in the first six races. That’s roughly the 106 points he’s now chasing.
Charles Leclerc, 167 points
Leclerc gets one great memory from this year. He won at Silverstone. The rest has been patchy. He retired in Monaco and at Monza, and finished 15th in Barcelona. Retiring at home, then retiring at Ferrari’s home. That’s a rough year even before you look at the table.
He’s 125 back. For him to win this, Antonelli would need to go pointless several times and Leclerc would need to win almost everything left. He’s a spoiler now, not a contender.
Max Verstappen, 145 points
This is the strangest one. Verstappen hasn’t won a race all year. But look at how he’s been driving lately. Third at Spa, second in Hungary, a DNF at Zandvoort, then third at Monza and second in Madrid. Four podiums from five starts in a car that clearly isn’t the fastest.
He’s 147 points back, so this title is gone. What’s worth watching is whether he nicks a win before December. If anyone breaks up the Mercedes party at a track like Baku, my money’s on him.
Oscar Piastri, 120 points
For Australian readers, this one stings. Piastri didn’t start the first two races of the season, including his home race in Melbourne. From there it’s been solid but never special. His best result was second at Suzuka, and he hasn’t won a race yet.
At 172 points behind, he’s done. The honest goal now is a win to salvage something, and keeping pace with Norris inside McLaren so this season doesn’t shape how the team sees him in 2027.
Isack Hadjar, 71 points
Hadjar comes back this weekend after a month off. He hurt his wrist training during the August break and missed Zandvoort, Monza and Madrid. Red Bull said they wouldn’t rush him, and after scans and simulator work he’s been cleared for Baku.
Before the injury he was quietly having a very good first year at Red Bull. He’d scored points in seven Grands Prix in a row. He’s technically alive at 221 points back, which means he’d need nearly every point left while Antonelli scores none. The real question for Hadjar isn’t the title. It’s whether that wrist holds up on one of the bumpiest, most unforgiving street tracks of the year.
Liam Lawson, 59 points
And back to where we started. Lawson did a proper job filling in for Hadjar. He finished seventh at Zandvoort and sixth in Spain, with a rough Monza weekend in between thanks to an engine penalty and a damaged front wing. Now he heads back to his Racing Bulls seat.
Here’s the ridiculous bit. If Lawson won all nine races and the Sprint, and Antonelli never scored again, they’d finish level on 292. Lawson would take the title on countback, nine wins to eight. It will not happen. But it’s still technically on the table, and I love that.
What actually decides this
Forget who has the best weekend. Watch who has the worst one.
Antonelli’s only real threat is Antonelli. He’s had two bad days this year and still leads by 81. If Russell is going to win this, he needs Antonelli to have two or three more of those Barcelona-style afternoons, and he needs to win every one of them.
Baku is walls, safety cars and surprise results. If Antonelli walks out of Saturday still 70-plus
