Bahrain Qualifying Analysis

By Joe Murphy

Wheel2Wheel#3 reviews the first qualifying session of the weekend with some twists, spins and certainly some surprises.

1. MazeSpin costs unlucky Seb

Both Nikita Mazepin and Sebastian Vettel had what they would describe as a disappointing opening qualifying of the 2021 Formula 1 season. The Russian span not once but twice in a disastrous Q1, the second time of which badly disrupted the lap time of the 4-time world champion in the German’s first qualifying in his new attire. Both out in Q1, it will be Vettel who is certainly going to be the more disappointed out of the two, even more so considering fellow Aston Martin driver Lance Stroll did such a good job in Q3. Side note, it was very nice to see MSC P1 at the start of Qualifying, even though it was short lived. 

2. Prancing horses get off to galloping start

Nobody could have predicted Sainz and Leclerc P1 and P2 at the end of Q2. Charles was especially impressive, always going behind Carlos in the first run, only to come back in all 3 sessions. The third time of which, took him to the second row for tomorrow’s race. Fans of the red team couldn’t have hoped for much more than they got during Saturday’s events. Both drivers into Q3 and they looked level with McLaren, something not widely predicted after recent practice runs. Both drivers, Charles especially, have a real chance to do some damage tomorrow. Whilst it is worth remembering both drivers lead the Q2 primarily because they were on softer tyres than the front runners, it was still nice to see a non Mercedes 1-2 for the first time in a while. 

3. Where did Alpha Tauri get that pace from?

Well, as much as I’m a fan of Pierre Gasly, I didn’t expect the car to be nearly as good. Both drivers impressed throughout. Tsunoda was P2 in his first ever qualifying section back in Q1, and although he didn’t make it to Q3, the car showed signs it could compete. Both drivers will start on medium tyres, the Frenchman from 5th, so a big points haul is a huge possibility. Despite McLaren and Ferrari doing well, you couldn’t really argue against the fact that Alpha Tauri looked the 3rd best team today. Gasly loves Bahrain, having claimed 4th in 2018. There seems a genuine possibility that he could repeat this achievement tomorrow or maybe even go a step further. 

4. Success for Alonso, Stroll. Pain for Perez.

Fernando Alonso didn’t even look like he’d been away today. In what he described as a “difficult” qualifying session, a top 10 starting position is a brilliant start for the Spaniard. He showed that class is permanent and reminded us all he is a former 2 time world champion. His teammate Ocon was another driver impeded by Mazepin’s spin, as he failed to make it out of Q1. 

Lance Stroll impressed again. Often the driver who doesn’t get the credit he deserves, instead he often gets far too much criticism in my mind. A solid top 10 start tomorrow for the Canadian, when many thought he would struggle in the windy, hot track conditions today. He certainly proved his critics wrong. 

It wasn’t quite as easy for Sergio Perez, opting and, in a way gambling, with the medium tyres, two mistakes cost him dearly. After running wide in his first Q2 attempt, his second run wasn’t good enough on the slower compound. Red Bull would have loved to have had both cars up front fighting the Mercedes, but it looks like Checo will have some work to do tomorrow to catch the frontrunners.

5. Max smashes Q3 to claim pole over Lewis and Valtteri as W2W correctly guessed top 3 in order.

The main news of the day was the performance of Max Verstappen. He out-qualified both Mercedes, beating 2nd placed Lewis Hamilton by four-tenths of a second, quite a big gap in the grand scheme of things. The Brit will line up alongside the dutchman on the front row at 4 pm GMT tomorrow, ahead of Valtteri Bottas in P3, who himself didn’t have the best qualifying. With only one Red Bull in the top 10, team tactics could come into it. Two things are for sure, one; Mercedes won’t have it all their own way this season and 2; Max Verstappen is going to challenge for the Drivers Championship this year.

Ahead of tomorrow’s race, I expect a few changes on position with race speed not always on a parallel to qualifying speed. I believe that the top 3 will remain in that order until the end, barring any mechanical difficulties, making them the most successful trio in racing history regarding podiums of 3 same drivers. Behind them, look out for Sergio Perez to make gains and Alonso to battle McLaren’s Norris and Ricciardo in the midfield.


Race Predictions:

1st – VER

2nd – HAM

3rd – BOT

4th – RIC

5th – NOR

6th – PER

7th – GAS

8th – SAI

9th – LEC

10th – ALO