By Noah Guttman
Let’s start this piece off with a hot take: Williams will finish at least third in 2026.
Yes, you heard it here first. Williams will be a top three team in 2026.
Will they be in contention for the Constructors’ title? Not necessarily, though an early-season push similar to last year could help to give them footing with the likes of Mercedes and McLaren.
That said, Williams will have a lot working for them this year.
Not only will Ferrari and Red Bull be hoping that they can keep up with the regulations-benefitting Mercedes power unit, but increased Papaya Rule slip-ups from McLaren could gift Williams some extra points. Williams is also a Mercedes customer team, meaning that they will receive the same regulations advantage that Mercedes, McLaren, and Alpine will obtain.
But even with the optimism surrounding this team, there’s going to be a couple benchmarks that the team needs to obtain if this season is to be called a success. Here’s just a few of those factors, though they could easily change form in considering that we are entering a brand new regulations era.
Williams wins at least one race, preferably two
The last time Williams won a race was at the 2012 Spanish Grand Prix, when Pastor Maldonado won his only Formula One race; Fernando Alonso and Kimi Raikkonen would be the other two drivers to make up the podium.
Considering Williams’ upward ascent over the last three years in addition to the success that they endured last season, which included two podiums and a fifth-place finish in the Constructors’ table, it’s reasonable to expect the team to take the next step.
That includes winning a race. Last season, there were several points in which a Williams car was in a race-leading position for at least one lap. While that is a small sample size, it’s also a sign of the progress that the team has made since James Vowles was appointed team principal prior to the 2023 season.
Back in 2024, Carlos Sainz was able to win four races for Ferrari, which all played a huge role in their battle with McLaren in the Constructors’ table. In 2023, he was the lone driver not named Max Verstappen to win a Grand Prix.
This year, I think he delivers Williams its first race win in almost fifteen years. And there’s a good chance Alex Albon does the same.
Williams scores points in at least 75% of all race weekends
Last season, Williams scored at least a point in all but seven of the twenty-four races run. They also had just one stretch of multiple races in which they didn’t score a point; that stretch was just two races long. For a team that had struggled to even score points for much of the last decade, that’s a pretty big step forward. Such a feat also can be seen as one of Williams’ biggest achievements from last season.
While the Constructors’ title is still a massive step forward at this stage, it’s worth noting that three of the last five Constructors’ Championship winners didn’t score points in every race. Over that span, the only teams to score points in every race and win the Constructors were McLaren in 2024 and Red Bull in 2023. In addition, each of the last two second-place Constructors didn’t score points in every race. In a 24-race Formula One campaign, that means that teams who finish in the top-two places tend to score points in 95% of races.
Yes, I know that statistic is a bit of a nothing-burger in the grand scheme of things, especially considering that such a trend is going to remain relatively constant unless there is a super-close or super-wacky season that results in every race having completely different finishes. But it’s a reasonable goal to work towards; in considering last year’s results, Williams scored in 71% of the race weekends contested.
Though they likely won’t end up contending for a title this year, it’s reasonable to expect Williams to score points more often. A 75% clip (equal to one additional race weekend with points) would be a reasonable expectation for Williams as they continue their upward ascent.
Williams earns multiple front-row qualifying finishes
Last season, Carlos Sainz was able to earn a front-row start for Williams in the Azerbaijan Grand Prix. Despite finishing third, his efforts throughout the weekend not only served as one of the high points of the team’s season, but it also can be seen as a mark of consistency for Williams to achieve in 2026.
If Williams is to contend for a top-three Constructors’ finish, they’ll need to put some strong qualifying performances together. While a top-two qualifying finish is nothing short of remarkable for a long-struggling team like Williams, the team will have to replicate it at least twice to have a chance at hanging with constructors like Ferrari and Red Bull.
Williams is able to get both of their drivers signed long-term
While this isn’t directly related to their performance this year, the contract status of both Alex Albon and Carlos Sainz could become a hot topic as the season progresses.
Both drivers are currently in the middle of multi-year contracts, however it’s unknown as to when their respective deals end; different end dates have been suggested across Formula One media sources, though the consensus is that Alex Albon and Carlos Sainz will be out of contract within the next two years.
As the season goes on, we should hear about what Williams’ future looks like and whether the team will enter negotiations with Alex Albon and Carlos Sainz for extensions. Considering that Carlos Sainz could be a large part of Williams’ future success, I wouldn’t be surprised if he is first in line for negotiations.
Considering that Alex Albon did outperform Sainz last season, the pressure for him to deliver is going to be slightly less intense compared to last season. That said, he is once again going to have to at least match Carlos Sainz’ performance; if he can do that, then he should be able to earn a strong extension offer from Williams’ front office.
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