By Joe Murphy
If you thought previous years were bad, that could be nothing in comparison to the exodus we could potentially see at the end of 2024. At the time of writing, Leclerc, Sainz, Perez, Alonso, Gasly, Ocon, Zhou, Tsunoda, Ricciardo, Albon, Sergeant, Hulkenberg and Zhou make it thirteen who will be officially out of contract in less than ten months.
So, who will be swapped? Who will be dropped? Who will be kept?
Charles Leclerc seems safe enough, so a renewal of his current deal, with a few extra coins chucked in, should be a safe assumption. Whilst I don’t think that Carlos Sainz’ seat is quite as safe, it’s hard to see who else the red team go for currently. If the Spaniard has a positive campaign, then he will be around next year.
The same can probably be said for the Haas pairing, although not quite with the same conviction. Having undergone major ‘backstage’ changes, the last thing the American Constructor will want to do is remove two experienced drivers from their roles, especially when their knowledge and experience could be invaluable in the development of the car.
Finally in this section, you have Alpine. Ocon and Gasly are the French Team’s wet dream. Young, talented and, most importantly; French, these two aren’t going anywhere. With investors coming through at the back end of 2023, the long-term vision must be with these two in their seats. It’s also unclear who they would go for as replacements.
Then, we move into Alonso, Zhou and Albon territory. Whether Fernando Alonso remains at Aston Martin will depend on the driver himself rather than the team. Will he want to call it a day? Zhou should remain with the team but this will depend on how his performances go alongside Valtteri Bottas after the rebrand. Lastly, if Williams had any sense, they’d sign Alex Albon to a longer-term deal. Whether he remains with the team will surely depend on openings elsewhere that may or may not develop.
Finally, what about Perez, Ricciardo, Tsunoda and Sergeant. Let’s get Logan out of the way first. His seat is perhaps the least secure in F1. Whilst I do expect him to see through the season, he must improve and be more competitive with his teammate. With other young drivers waiting in the wings, the question is how long can his position remain tenable.
Speaking of wings, Red Bull’s transfer circus has been spoken about too much at this point. Quite whether all or none of them will be racing in 2024, remains to be seen. Even if they all are, quite where this will be is anyone’s guess. It depends on form, pace, competitiveness and money. Yuki is developing well so I think Alpha Tauri would be mad to simply just give up on the Japanese driver who could improve so much still. Ricciardo and Perez swap rumours never seen to die and it is feasible. But don’t discount Liam Lawson from putting his name into the conversation. If he comes in, one driver will have to depart.
That is, of course, until a certain ‘Andretti’ Team comes to the party.
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