How does Joe Man think the F1 starting grid will look, come 2023?
It’s official. It may only be four races into this 2022 season, but the 2023 rumour mill has already begun! Although ‘silly season’ does not normally kick off until the summer break, discussions are already under way for the prized seats for the next campaign.
It’s believed that 10 drivers are out of contract in December. Therefore, it should be fascinating to see what happens. We can draw a line under Ferrari and Mercedes who have their drivers under contract for at least 2023. There is a chance that Lewis Hamilton could have a clause in his contract allowing him to leave if the car is uncompetitive. However his options would not be any faster so its very likely there will be no change there.
Lets look at Red Bull. Max is going nowhere and there is talk of a contract extension. That leaves the question of Sergio Perez. At this stage you would imagine that the Mexican will receive another one year extension for 2023. He is performing very well and is right up there with his world champion teammate. He would need a really bad run for anything to change. It doesn’t make sense to change the line up. Max and Checo get on very well and are delivering every week.
Personally, I see no change at Red Bull.
McLaren are another team with both drivers under contract. Lando is on a new long term deal with the team keeping him with them until 2025. Riccardo’s position seems slightly less clear. It has been another unhappy start to a season for te Australian and you feel time is running out for him to find his mojo, and start showing that he is still the driver he used to be. The most likely replacement right now looks to be Indy Car driver Pato Ward. He is excelling this year and has made no secret of his desire to get to F1. He is also already driving for McLaren and a good friend of Norris. Again similar to Perez , Daniel would need to continue to struggle for there to be any movement. Most likely the team will stick with the current line up for 2023.
After Mercedes, Ferrari, Red Bull and McLaren, things become less clear.
Alpine have some serious thinking ahead of next year thanks to Oscar Piastri!
The Australian wonder kid and 2021 F2 champion, is their reserve driver. Having accepted a year out in 2022 he won’t accept another one. That leaves Alpine in a pickle!! Esteban Ocon is contracted until 2024 however Fernando Alonso is out of contract at the end of this year.
Question is do Alpine want to loose Alonso.
He is driving really well and with better luck could have had some great results already this year. He is however 40 years old and not exactly the future. If they stick with Fernando then Piastri will go elsewhere even if he stays a part of Alpine’s driver program. More on that shortly.
Alpha Tauri, have both drivers out of contract. It seems likely that if Yuki Tsunoda keeps up his good start to the season, that he will be retained for 2023. It’s basically his to lose. His French counterpart Pierre Gasly, however, is a different story. He will feel that he needs to leave the Red Bull family. He isn’t going to end up back at Red Bull. They have made it clear that, although now at Williams, Alex Albon would be there next choice. This leaves Pierre, to an extent, in limbo! A switch to any of the other teams with seats available would leave him roughly fighting with the same teams he is now. That being said a change is what he needs. If someone can show him that he will be fighting for wins over the next few years he will make the move.
I think the most likely move is to partner Alex Albon at Williams or a gamble with Aston Martin. He will want a long term contract and evidence that they have a strong plan of success. Alpine may want to go with a driver of French origin, but that remains to be seen.
Aston Martin are another team with both drivers out of contract. Lance Stroll will almost certainly get one with his dad running the team. I don’t see any of the other teams going for him anyway.
What then does Sebastian Vettel do?
You cant see him wanting to drive around at the back for too long. If by the summer break Aston are still nowhere then I think Vettel will leave the sport. None of the big teams are going to come for him now and he looks like he really doesn’t care! If his love for motorsport is still strong then a switch to a different category could have him back fighting for wins.
If Seb goes then what? Aston Martin currently have no junior drivers in F2 with Nico Hulkenburg as there reserve driver. Hardly one for the future either! Could they make a big move on Pierre Gasly? If they can show that their car can be fast then it could well happen!
Alfa Romeo have Zhou Guanyu out of contract and will leave it until the last minute to decide who will team up with Valtteri Bottas. Théo Pourchaire is their reserve driver and is currently leading the F2 championship. It would surely be between those two for the seat. Zhou does come with large investment backing so I fancy the seat will remain his. Antonio Giovinazzi could also be a popular option for a return. It has worked for Kevin Magnussen this season.
Speaking of Haas, Mick Schumacher is the driver out of contract. Although he has not been performing you feel he will get another year. Ferrari will be very keen for him to be kept on and being the engine supplier, will likely get their way. They will hope he can learn from the Dane and start showing some true speed!
That leaves Williams and they also have two out of contract drivers. If Perez stays at Red Bull you would imagine Albon will be retained. He has had a great start with the team and is clearly their number one. Williams will want him to sign for sure and base their growth around him. It makes sense for Alex to continue to build his reputation and hope to get back in the Red Bull in 2024. As for Nicholas Latifi, surely he will not be on the grid next year. It is purely a case of how much money his father is investing. If Williams can find the money elsewhere then they must take the jump and get in a driver to help build the team. This is where the name Oscar Piastri comes up again. If Fernando Alonso signs a new contract with Alpine then I fancy Piastri to go to Williams. It gives him a chance to cut his teeth at the top level while he waits for a top level drive.
I’ll nail my colours to the mast and predict the grid below for 2023.
2023 driver line up prediction:
Mercedes
Russell/Hamilton
Red Bull
Verstappen/Perez
Ferrari
Sainz/Leclerc
Mclaren
Riccardo/Norris
Alpine
Alonso/Ocon
Alfa Romeo
Bottas/Zhou
Williams
Piastri/Albon
Alpha Tauri
Tsunoda/Daruvala
Aston Martin
Gasly/Stroll
Haas
Schumacher/Magnussen
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