By Joe Murphy
Will Max Verstappen extend his narrow lead at the top of the Drivers’ standings this weekend in Mexico City? On the other hand, will Lewis Hamilton close the gap, or even, reform a lead of his own? It is a track that both of these men has been victorious at, in the past. A track that should also suit the strengths of Ferrari and McLaren, coupled with that of a special Red Bull homecoming which offers a certain Mexican driver the best opportunity of his career to impress his adoring supporters, we are surely in for a fascinating weekend of action. Time now to estimate how events, could unfold…
Max to take decisive lead over Lewis with dominating display
Could this be the week where Max Verstappen stamps his credentials as favourite in this title fight for the ages? Perhaps. The Dutchman is strong at this track and has won here before. In fact, Red Bull have a pretty strong record here. On the other hand, despite winning the most recent outing here a couple of years ago, Lewis Hamilton hasn’t had much success here, frequently outpaced by Red Bull and Ferrari over the earlier years. Verstappen is set to be favourite to take the race win, but discount Mercedes at your peril. Expect Lewis to make it as difficult as he possibly can for Verstappen, but for the #33 driver to, ultimately, be victorious. The first corner, much like a fortnight ago in Texas, will be key to how this race unfolds.
Happy homecoming for Checo to be spoilt by McLaren
This is, by far, the best opportunity Sergio Perez has ever had (and may ever have) to stand on the podium at his home race. In the past, he has struggled to deal with the pressure and his Force India struggled to finish in any meaningful position. The crowd will be roaring behind Checo, and he has an important role to play. The race victory could ultimately be at stake and, with the constructor’s neck and neck at the top of the standings, both Red Bull and Mercedes cannot allow for may slip ups. However, as much as homefans and neutrals alike would love a hometown hero win, I feel there may be some feeling of disappointment. Perez will more than likely score a handful of points barring a disaster, but he will miss out on a podium. The main reason for predicting such an outcome is I expect McLaren to really push the leading cars. Lando Norris and Daniel Ricciardo have an amazing opportunity (and I believe the tools capable) to out the cat amongst the pigeons with a podium finish this weekend. Not only this, but the Orange cars will be hoping to extend the narrow lead over Ferrari in the Constructor’s standings. If Lewis and Max take each other out, there is the potential for a maiden race win for Lando on Sunday.
Ferrari to be on the pace, Alpine to stuggle
Whilst they may fail to replicate success of a few years ago at this circuit, Ferrari are in store for a good showing in Mexico City. Perhaps not to the same extent as McLaren, but nevertheless the Red team should score well this weekend. Both drivers know this circuit well and have had mixed fortunes over the hybrid era. This weekend, expect a strong qualifying from Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz, and a double points finish for the pair.
On the other hand, this venue isn’t the most suited to the Alpine car. Fernando Alonso and Estaban Ocon will be hoping for a decent result, but, in truth, it will be a struggle for points. The pair may be on the cusp of points when the men cross the finish line, but a low teens finish is rather more likely. If other cars finish ahead, I don’t see much of a chance. To put it simply, there are over ten faster cars on the grid that are better suited to this track.
Tailor-made for Pierre to do something special
Pierre Gasly scored a rare podium in Azerbaijan, but ever since, he has performed fantastically on a consistent basis. So much so, there is renewed talk of a future set at a ‘top team’. Although set for another Alpha Tauri season next year, the young Frenchman will look to continue to impress and hope to attract the attention of Mercedes or, indeed, Red Bull. The French connection to Alpine, could also be an option down the line. With an eye on more immediate events, Gasly could score very well this weekend. After an abysmal weekend in Austin, he should make amends here at a track that could suit the Italian Constructor and their car. If my next prediction comes true, Pierre could easily take advantage of potential misfortune of those ahead, to score well and, perhaps, he could be in with a shout of a fourth career podium.
Major lap 1 retirement on the cards, possible safety car to shake things up?
The main reason why Gasly could be on for a podium is because of this prediction. It isn’t even the most outlandish estimation ever, either. In recent Grand Prix at this track, we have seen contact between the leading cars, particularly in the first sector of the first lap. With neither Hamilton or Verstappen wanting to give way to the other, and with Ferrari and McLaren expected to battle ferociously, we could be in for contact that takes two or even three cars out of action before the end of the first lap. As seen in previous races earlier this year, a shake up of the order makes for a fascinating watch and unpredictability across the grid.
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