By Joe Murphy
After another double DNF for the leading championship duo in the last outing at the Italian Grand Prix, we head to Sochi for another eagerly round of the Formula 1 season. Will order be restored with a familiar front finishing order? Or will we have another surprise win on our hands? Let’s see…
Bottas and Penalty, both hurdles too big for Max to overcome, handing Lewis victory?
Max Verstappen didn’t only ruin one race with his incident in Monza, he scuppered his chances in two. A three place penalty for the Dutchman means he will start Sunday’s race from fourth, at the very best. At a track where Mercedes have been truly dominant over the years, Verstappen will have his work cut out to start anywhere better than sixth. The most likely bet is to two Mercedes starting on the front row, with the two McLaren’s lining up behind them. Max’s success this weekend will be how quickly he can get by Lando and Daniel, unless you have teammate Sergio Perez (who should be no problem for Verstappen) or even surprise names like the in-form Pierre Gasly or reliable Charles Leclerc up there instead. Every lap Max is behind these cars, Lewis will be the one, you’d expect, to be pulling away at the front and extending his lead. And with teammate Valtteri Bottas especially strong at this track, the Brit should have the benefit and support of the extra Silver Arrow cushion. Or will he?
But will Valtteri play ball?
The fact that Valtteri Bottas is now confirmed to be leaving the constructor at the end of the season and with the Finn having an outside chance of catching the front two in what will be without doubt his last chance to win a championship, why would Bottas help Lewis. Valtteri is ever the professional, but you feel a lot of that was to keep his place in the Silver Arrow line up. With that guarantee out of the window, I predict and hope for a more selfish Valtteri Bottas. This is arguably his best track and could very well be in the lead position at some point on Sunday. It remains to be seen if he will now give any space, position or tow to Lewis over the course of the weekend, but you would have to question his motivation for doing so now that he is Alfa Romeo bound. A Bottas race win, with Lewis behind and Max in third, is certainly a possible, if not probable, outcome from events in Russia. A tenth race win would continue his current strong form, after an exemplary weekend in Italy two weeks ago which included a P20 to podium recovery drive.
Checo needs a strong showing, battle with the Ferrari’s for 4th?
So, with one championship rival maybe or maybe not having the advantage of a teammate up alongside him, this is something that the other championship candidate, and his constructor, need this weekend. If Sergio Perez can start Sunday’s race in third or better, then not only will this help his own points tally, but it will also improve the chances for his team and Dutch counterpart. With that affotmentioned three place penalty for Max, it falls (initially) on the Mexican to make sure that Mercedes don’t have it all their own way in Sochi. In the last two races, Perez has shown great maturity and experience when it mattered to complete two excellent recovery drives, with only a five-second penalty keeping him from a spot on the podium. However, in the fastest car on the grid, he shouldn’t need to be recovering. Everybody knows, Albon and Gasly more than most, just how tricky that “other” Red Bull car can be, but Checo was brought in especially to maximize its potential using his wealth of race credentials. If Perez can put his Red Bull cat in amongst the Mercedes pair of pigeons, then both his team and teammate alike, stand a much better chance or ending the Silver Arrows’ notorious Russian dominance.
A surprise in order as Ocon to out-pace Fernando?
Further down the field, if all goes as expected, Alpine will surely do relatively well this weekend. They have the car for a double points finish, and should be the ones capitalising on any mishaps that happen in front of them, just as they did in Hungary. Since that win, Estaban Ocon has somewhat faltered and failed to continue to push and impress and it has instead been his teammate that has had the resurrgence. This weekend needs to be the one where the Frenchman stands up and gets a good points finish, ideally ahead of his teammate. Fernando Alonso will be relatively new to this track, not that that counts for much as per the expertise of the Spaniard. However, Ocon has the tools to take his car to a top eight finish this weekend. His team will be hoping he can do just that.
Points for Seb, but more misery for Yuki?
Finally, we take a look at two drivers who have had a poor recent run in F1 races. Sebastian Vettel has been nowhere near the points since his DNF podium in Hungary. The Aston Martin seems a shadow of her former Racing Point self, and despite the German impressing at earlier points this season, the pace simply isn’t there. With any question marks over his future quashed by recent confirmation that both him and Lance Stroll will line up on the grid for the constructor next year, hopefully Seb can rediscover the form that took him to a podium (or two, if you prefer), earlier in the season. It appears as though Yuki Tsunoda may not be so lucky. What isn’t helping the young Japanese driver is that Pierre Gasly is doing exceptionally well in the sister Alpha Tauri. Therefore, his struggle is emphasized and highlighted to a greater extent, in comparison. Wheel2Wheel Reports expects Alpha Tauri to be a force at this weekend’s grand prix, particularly in qualifying, but that prediction only extends to one of the cars at present. Tsunoda needs to be, at worst, a couple of places below his teammate otherwise the pressure and criticism (as we have seen this week), will continue to mount. He may be confirmed for next season also, but is the performances don’t start coming soon, that will be his last, as such the cut-throat nature, of the sport.
WHEEL2WHEEL REPORTS 