By Joe Murphy
With the final instalment of this Formula 1, post summer break, triple header coming from Monza, there is much to look forward to over this weekend. Not only does this Italian circuit of speed usually give fans an interesting spectacle, it also will be the venue for the second ever sprint qualifying format. The race here last year is this writer’s personal favourite of all time and with both respective championships being more evenly contested than we have seen in the last decade, the events of the weekend should prove, not only unpredictable but also, crucial to how the rest of the season plays out. With Lewis Hamilton and Mercedes out to prove a point, and Max Verstappen out to hold his narrow lead, we could be in for one hell of a treat this weekend. Let’s predict what could be in store…
Lewis to win on Sunday at one of Max’s less favourable circuits…
Although this year’s version of Max Verstappen is a more mature, more complete driver, there is no denying that Monza isn’t one of the Dutchman’s preferred venues. In contrast, Lewis Hamilton is a former winner here and knows full well what it takes to be successful here at the cathedral of speed. It’s always going to be difficult to predict how the weekend pans out, especially with so many more variables with the addition of a sprint race to the mix, but Lewis should be the one who’s on the top step come Sunday. A lot depends on the first corner, if he can hold Max, Valtteri and even Lando behind him through turn one, or even take the lead from one of the aforementioned, then the Brit should be in good shape to take victory. Mercedes are usually stellar with their strategy. And who knows, maybe Valtteri himself could be a factor in the result. However, Hamilton needs to be weary, having dropped a place to Verstappen when sprint qualifying made its debut, back at Silverstone, earlier this year.
Daniel Ricciardo or Lando Norris to step on the podium?
McLaren had a superb race here last year, narrowly missing out on victory. It was then Carlos Sainz, now of course at Ferrari, but this year it could be either one of the pair. Lando is the one who is seemingly finding it easier to get the most out of his car this season, whereas Ricciardo has been rather more inconsistent. McLaren have an excellent chance to not only register a large haul of points to extend their P3 position in the constructor’s championship standings, but also to score a podium at Monza, again. It’s never an easy task with at least two Red Bull’s and two Mercedes making life difficult, but should any opportunities open up, expect the team in orange to be the one’s who capitalise. As hinted at previously, the more likely of the pair to do this has got to be Lando Norris, but discount the Australian at your peril.
Redemption boy couldn’t do it again, could he?
No. Unfortunately not. It’s almost certain that Gasly won’t repeat his miracle of last year. However, that doesn’t mean the Frenchman cannot achieve another brilliant result. Other than maybe Norris and Verstappen, Pierre has got to be considered as one of the drivers of the season, with performances being strong and consistent throughout much of the campaign so far. Last year, a lot fell for Pierre and it would be even more miraculous this time around, if he can find himself standing on the podium again, come Sunday. The car could suit the circuit, though, so a top six finish is certainly on the cards. I’m sure both driver and team, Alpha Tauri, would take such a result. I do fully expect the number 10 car to be up alongside the McLaren and Ferrari pairings, in the upper midfield.
Strong showing for Stroll but more misery for Seb…
Aston Martin are becoming incredibly hard for my predictions articles. In some races, they end up challenging for race wins. In others, they are down just ahead of Haas at the back. Sebastian Vettel is the major culprit here. He has two podiums to his name (I’m not accepting that disqualification) but then last time out for example, he has a horrible showing in Zandvoort. Lance Stroll has gone rather more under the radar, but has also been inconsistent. The midfield outfit will want to beat Alpha Tauri and Alpine in the midfield battle come December, and a strong showing here could set them up perfectly to do that. However, it is a circuit that is likely to benefit other cars instead. Therefore, a fair prediction could be that one car achieves a points finish whereas the other finishes in the mid-teens, positions. An unpopular opinion, I do feel Lance Stroll is underrated, and his father’s role in the team is often used against him. Don’t forget, the Canadian has multiple podium finishes and even a pole position to his name. Therefore, expect Stroll to be the one who scores single digit points whereas the German driver could be the one who struggles, as he has done over the last couple of years at this track.
Sprint Qualy format to shake up the grid from top to bottom…
This is almost inevitable, and again it is difficult to predict with all the variables in play. A small sample of mini predictions is probably a wise way to go about looking at this new sprint qualifying format. Expect the Haas cars to not be at the very back, as at least a car or two will fail to finish the sprint race. Moreover, drivers such as Perez and Bottas should be ready to capitalise on any confrontation between the two main title rivals ahead, so either one of those could conceivably end up on “pole” for raceday. Finally, keep an eye on Alfa Romeo’s Antonio Giovinazzi and Alpine’s Fernando Alonso to make moves on Saturday, to set them up nicely for an improved starting position Sunday. Whatever happens, there are twists and turns that lay ahead. I, for one, cannot wait for events to unfold and all our questions to be answered, in Italy, this weekend.
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